Scenarios and futures thinking for impact assessment in a changing climate
Theme leader:
Elizabeth Wilson, Reader in Environmental Planning, Oxford Brookes University
Climate change requires us to look to longer time horizons than decision-makers are used to: we need to consider the long-term impacts of our actions, and to act now to avoid or influence future impacts. Scenarios have been developed as “coherent, internally consistent and plausible descriptions of possible future states of the world”. They offer scope for exploring the interactions of complex driving forces across a range of time-scales, and it might be expected that they could play an important role in impact assessment. However, environmental impact assessments have not systematically addressed the issue of climate change, nor have they generally made the most of opportunities to extend their time-horizons and to employ scenarios other than business-as-usual models.
This theme comprises two interactive sessions presenting case-studies of two projects which have developed future scenarios, and giving dedicated time to participative debate on the lessons learnt and the implications for EIA:
Session 1: Water Scenarios for Europe
Confirmed presentation: Ilona Bärlund and Martina Flörke
GRID-Wasser, Centre for Environmental Systems Research (CESR), University of Kassel, Germany
Session format: an initial presentation of the context for the FP6 SCENES project, a stakeholder-driven development process of both qualitative and quantitative scenarios for the future of fresh-water resources in Europe. The project has developed scenarios of water resources and water quality for pan-Europe for 2050s, linking climate change and socio-economic scenarios in storyline development and quantitative modelling. The researchers will reflect on the methodological aspects of storyline development, particularly their approach to scenario-building through modelling and Story and Simulation approaches.
This will be followed by an interactive workshop in which participants will consider
- the methodologies employed in developing the scenarios
- the usefulness and limitations of a scenario approach
- lessons learnt in the SCENES project
Session 2: Scenario-building
Session 2A: CO2 Emissions Modelling & Forecasting
Franck Cachia (BioIs, lately of French Ministry of Sustainable Development (MEEDDM))
Session format: A short presentation will be given of the objectives and the structure of the model, the first results based on French data and how it can be used to improve policy impact assessments at the national and EU level could be made.
The study objective is to provide decision-makers (at national or European level) with appropriate tools to improve their understanding of the main short to medium-term drivers of CO2 emissions. This includes sector specific drivers and allows for a quantitative assessment of the impacts of policy changes (such as improved renewable energy targets or increased taxes on fossil fuels) on CO2 emissions. The study allows for a comparison of the accuracy of modelling and impact assessments between bottom up and direct (global) approaches.
Session 2B: Scenario-building in Spitsbergen, Arctic
Tobias Luthe - University of Applied Sciences, HTW Chur, Switzerland, Yvette Evers - Leeds Metropolitan University, UK, Eric L. Berlow - University of California at Merced, USA
Session format: an introductory presentation of the project on scenario-building in ecological-social-economic systems in a changing climate in the Arctic of Spitsbergen, Svalbard: history and lessons learnt from the initial local demand for support and the first small-scale scenario-building and implementation, including outreach and communication (movie), and the need to step beyond current initiatives on Svalbard.
A second presentation will explain the transfer and upscale of this first initiative involving a ‚change of angle’ into the international research program ResiNet.
This will be followed by an interactive open innovation workshop in which participants will become part of the ResiNet program and intended methodology: open innovation crowd sourcing discussions on considering network analysis as a tool to “tier” scenarios, with assessment of the current economic system on the ecological environment, feedbacks on the social system, impacts of environmental changes, and development of alternatives and scenarios.
Theme outcomes:
- Lessons learnt from experience with scenario development
- Understanding of barriers to and opportunities for futures thinking
- Proposals for dissemination of lessons from practice
- Recommendations for the Washington Symposium on the scope for employing such approaches in EIA and SEA